China and the Post-COVID world order
Things are getting back to normal in China and even as the world continues to struggle it’s most populous member is successfully working on a new narrative as regards its overall role in the coronavirus pandemic
Considering its hegemonic ambitions this is the best possible time for the Chinese to take charge of a world suffering from crippling financial losses and staring at impending recession
Things are going China’s way. The country has announced it will ease lockdown on the province of Hubei two months after imposing it. For starters Hubei, with its capital city of Wuhan as the epicenter, where it all began. The coronavirus (COVID-19) has since spread rapidly all over the world, forcing the World Health Organisation (WHO) to declare it a global pandemic.
While Wuhan will be sealed off for a few more days (till April 8th) the easing of the lockdown in general indicates the Chinese government has managed to control the outbreak, at least validates such a claim. This at a time when the entire world is getting to grips, limiting social interactions and imposing severe curbs to tackle the spread of the novel coronavirus.
Also, by offering other affected countries economic assistance and support — sending them medical supplies and protective equipment like face masks, surgical masks, testing kits and ventilators — China is succeeding in shifting the narrative away from the country’s attempt to cover-up the whole thing.
China can also have a sigh of relief from the fact that United States President Donald Trump has assured that he will stop using the term “Chinese virus” henceforth. It is imperative here to state that Trump, critical of Beijing’s initial handling of the outbreak and efforts to shift the blame onto the United States, has kept using the term “China Virus” first in a tweet, and then in his public addresses till this recent assurance. In fact the American President came under severe criticism for the same, even though he insisted “it was not racist”.
These are welcome changes for China, a country that has so far shied away from taking up responsibility in the first place. A few days back the state-run CGTN carried the headline “Is Trump blaming China for COVID-19? You decide” in a series of clips where the American President in mincing no words in laying the blame on China.
But fact remains it was never a blame game. The accusation from a perennially excited, supposedly liberal and inherently negative media notwithstanding Trump was not wrong. The coronavirus indeed came from China.
The outbreak was first identified in Wuhan last December and the early cases were linked to the ‘wet markets’ of that city. In fact it is no coincidence that the coronavirus is not the first to come out of China. The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) of 2002–04 was also first identified in the Guangdong province in south China. The country could have learnt from SARS, identified and addressed the issues, shuttered the unhygienic wet markets across the country and thereby avoided the COVID-119 pandemic. Instead the Chinese administration’s recklessness ensured a repeat.
China has always been a secretive country and the initial attempt to cover-up the whole thing was on expected lines. Neither did it heed to the early warnings nor did it take the steps necessary to mitigate the spread. Instead the doctors, who initially reported the issue, were silenced and put in isolation. Dr Li Wenliang of the Wuhan Central Hospital, who took the lid off the issue, ironically succumbed to COVID-19 himself. He was only 33.
Dr Ai Fen, another medical expert from the same hospital, was put on gag and her blog posts deleted. She later admitted in an interview, with Chinese magazine Renwu (People) that she had been reprimanded for warning to her superiors about the outbreak. The interview censors are now busy trying to erase it from the internet. Renwu has since removed the interview as well.
True to type the Chinese government has refrained from taking any accountability on the coronavirus issue. Instead, the United States was accused of causing panic and spreading fear — following its decision to declare public health emergency and deny entry to foreign nationals who had recently visited China. In fact, there have been conspiracy theories abound. Earlier this month a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said the US Army might have brought the epidemic to Wuhan.
Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, called attention to a comment from Robert Redfield, the director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, acknowledging that some Americans who were said to have died from influenza may have actually died from COVID-19.
“When did patient zero begin in US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be US Army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!” he tweeted.
The allusion pertained to US athletes participating in the Military World Games in Wuhan last year, though there is no supporting evidence. Whatever be the theory the Chinese officials have been desperately trying to reshape the “coronavirus narrative”, suggesting it might have originated out of China. Palpably Trump is not amused. The American President and his administration have been quick to retaliate, putting the blame squarely on China.
Recently Robert O’Brien, the White House national security adviser, said the initial Chinese response, rather the lack of it had cost the world two months.
“Unfortunately, rather than using best practices, this outbreak in Wuhan was covered up,” O’Brien said. “It probably cost the world community two months to respond, during which we could have dramatically curtailed what happened both in China and what is now happening across the world.”
By the time public health officials from China informed WHO about the problem the virus was rapidly spreading outside Wuhan and subsequently all across the world. As regards the trustworthiness of the information provided by the Chinese authorities, suffice to say they are ambiguous.
While China was taking aggressive action, isolating people and enforcing containment measures WHO officials declared that Europe was the new epicenter of the pandemic, with more and more cases reported each day than was the case in China at the height of its outbreak.
Major European countries like Germany, France, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom reported a spurt in cases but it was Italy that suffered the worst — with the numbers of deaths recorded in the country surpassing those in China. Even as cases in Italy continue to surge and its hospitals are overwhelmed, the government is finding it increasingly difficult to tackle a problem of such magnitude.
Irony is, now when the European countries are imposing quarantine measures, stricter confinement rules and shutting borders, China is easing restrictions and promoting its heavy-handed approach in tackling the outbreak as a success story. This is in stark contrast to its attitude when it came to owning up on the issue. The government controlled media has gone into propaganda mode in full throttle. Is it surprising? Well, not quite.
Any one following the developments in China over the years is aware of the country’s global ambitions. Following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, China harbors ambitions of being another Super Power like the United States. Its recent growth story has fueled the ambitions further.
However, the Cold War between the United States and the erstwhile Soviet Union — in the post World War II global order, was based on technological and military innovation and it is exactly where China lacks. A Made in China label doesn’t exactly guarantee a product’s originality. Even neighboring countries like Japan and South Korea are known for their technological advancement.
An expert on China once told this writer China may harbor expansionist hopes, but it does not have the technological capability to support them. In fact it does not bother either. Most of its technological innovations have been imitations and modifications of those made in the other advanced countries, at best. Borrowed technical knowhow, and pilfered military technology, can help you to a certain extent in gaining immediate prominence but aren’t long term solutions.
Aware of its technological deficiency (read incompetence) China has instead thrown its financial weight to further its ambitions, putting money at infrastructure projects across the globe. China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is probably the best example of its attempts to expand the country’s geopolitical reach and further its hegemonic ambitions. The estimated costs of the BRI amounts to more than a trillion US Dollars.
While the world grapples with the coronavirus crisis, and looming recession, for China it is opportunity to position itself more positively. The country has been quick to seize it, announcing assistance for many less developed and developing countries in Asia and Africa. It has also been hosting video conferences with health officials from across the globe, offering its experience as the first country to deal with the outbreak.
And now, when America is struggling and its own problems has forced the country to distance itself from Europe, China has been quick to pounce on the opportunity, offering both aid and sales of essential medical and relief supplies in a bid to rewrite the narrative — that it is responsible for the spread of COVID-19.
As things stand, a severe economic collapse seems inevitable. If and when the world finds a solution to this pandemic — even though a recurrence cannot be ruled out — it will come at a heavy price, with most countries becoming financially crippled. With America, and most of the West weakened and the developing world already at its mercy, the Chinese will dominate world trade, and even set the price.
China, the origin of the pandemic and having thrown the entire world into a medical mess and potential recession has miraculously recovered, and is all set to realize its hegemonic ambitions and take complete control in a Post-COVID world order.
